Arbitrage betting, guaranteed profit when the books disagree enough
When two bookmakers price the same match differently enough, you can back every outcome and lock in a profit regardless of result. Rare, smaller margins, but no variance.
The intuition
Two books price the same match. Book A pays 2.10 on Team X. Book B pays 2.10 on the opposite outcome. Stake £100 on each and one bet will always pay £210. Your total stake was £200. Profit = £10, or 5%, regardless of which team wins. That's an arb.
Why arbs exist
Bookmakers don't see each other's prices in real time, and they don't need to. Each book is optimising its own book, not policing the market. When a sharp move happens on one book, the others lag for minutes, sometimes hours on niche markets. That gap is the arb window.
Working out if a market is arbable
Sum the implied probabilities of every outcome (1 ÷ decimal price for each). If the sum is below 1.00 (or 100%), the combined market is arbable. The further below 1, the bigger the profit. Most football arbs land 1-3% on the total stake.
The practical problems
Arbs need capital across multiple books, fast execution, and high tolerance for paperwork. Books limit arbers quickly, sometimes after the first bet that flags suspicious. Stake sizes must be calculated to the penny or you give back the edge in rounding. simplyodds shows the spread on every match so you can spot the candidates; we don't auto-place bets.
Arbitrage vs value betting
Arbs are lower variance, every arb pays. Value betting has higher variance but a bigger long-run edge per bet. Most serious bettors run both: value bets where the edge is large, arbs when the spread crosses the threshold. The arbitrage calculator does the stake split for you.
FAQ
- How often do arbs appear?
- On football 1X2, a typical day surfaces 5-15 arbs across our 15 leagues, most in the 1-3% range. Bigger arbs (4%+) usually involve a smaller offshore book lagging a sharp move.
- Will my book ban me for arbing?
- Some books will limit you quickly. Crypto books tolerate it longer than regulated retail books. Spread your action across multiple operators and keep stake sizes proportionate to a "normal" punter.
- Is there a minimum bankroll?
- A useful arb bankroll starts around £2,000 spread across 4-5 books. Smaller works, but you'll struggle to capture larger arbs without enough capital on the right side.