How it works
The simplyodds approach in three short reads: value, arbitrage, and the Polymarket fair line.
The two-line version
We strip the margin out of the Polymarket prediction market and call that the fair line. We then compare what 9 bookmakers are paying on every football market. When a book pays more than the fair line implies, that's a value bet.
Value betting, what it is and how simplyodds finds it
A value bet is a price longer than the true probability of the outcome. Find enough of them and you win long-term, regardless of which individual bets lose.
Arbitrage betting, guaranteed profit when the books disagree enough
When two bookmakers price the same match differently enough, you can back every outcome and lock in a profit regardless of result. Rare, smaller margins, but no variance.
Polymarket as the fair line, why a prediction market beats consensus
Polymarket has no bookmaker margin in the mid-price. That makes it the cleanest reference for what the market actually thinks an outcome is worth.
Get every edge in real time
Once you understand the method, the practical question is "how do I see edges the moment they appear?" Two ways: browse the live board, or connect the Telegram bot to push alerts to your phone.