Kelly criterion stake calculator

Optimal stake sizing for value bets. Kelly maximises long-run bankroll growth. Most pros bet 25-50% of full Kelly to absorb variance.

✓ Edge, bet 4.18% of bankroll
Full Kelly fraction8.36%
Adjusted Kelly (×0.5)4.18%
Recommended stake€41.82

How it works

Kelly fraction = (p × b − q) / b where b = odds − 1, q = 1 − p. Multiply by bankroll for stake.

Step by step

  1. Set bankroll, The total amount you bet with.
  2. Enter odds and probability, Decimal odds; true probability from your fair line.
  3. Pick Kelly fraction, Half-Kelly is a sane default.

FAQ

Why not full Kelly?

Variance. Full Kelly maximises long-run growth but the drawdowns are brutal, 50% pullbacks are common. Half-Kelly halves growth but cuts variance dramatically.

What if Kelly says zero or negative?

No edge, do not bet.