Poisson football model calculator

Estimate match outcome probabilities and 1X2 fair odds using a simple Poisson model based on expected goals.

Poisson 1X2 model
Home win51.40%fair 1.95
Draw24.01%fair 4.16
Away win24.59%fair 4.07

How it works

Treat each team's goals as Poisson-distributed with mean = expected goals. Multiply the home and away score-line probabilities up to a sensible cutoff (we use 8) to get a full grid, then sum into 1X2.

Step by step

  1. Estimate xG for each team, Use last-5-game averages or a model.
  2. Calculate, See 1X2 probabilities and fair odds.

FAQ

How accurate is Poisson?

Surprisingly good as a first pass, beats the books on lower-tier leagues if your xG inputs are decent. Top-flight needs adjustments for low-scoring tightness (Dixon-Coles).